3 Simple Steps to Realistic Estimates for Your Project
The purpose of this blog post is to cover how to estimate project deliverables and tasks, and how to help the team members and you arrive at some realistic targets.
Estimating deliverables is a project piece in the OVERSEE domain of the MPM model and under the Outcomes segment. However, the deliverables provide critical input to the Approach piece which is in the PLAN domain and within the Map segment of the MPM model.
Deliverables provide critical input to the Approach piece which is in the PLAN domain and within the Map segment of the MPM model
An Estimate Range is Easier
When your deliverables are defined, the next step is to define the tasks to complete those deliverables and, of course as someone wearing the Project Management hat, you also need to know the effort for the tasks in order to solidify the approach and schedule.
Depending on the team member, their estimates can be either very high (or overly pessimistic) or very low (or overly optimistic).
The challenge is that Parkinson law creeps in, in that work can sometimes expand to fill the time available. This isn’t a negative thing; however, the project may not have the luxury of a large amount of time examining every option. So, you need to establish the “it’s good enough” point.
The project may only have the funds and time to spend 20 hours on something that could easily take three months and be an entire research paper.
Likewise, you need realistic estimates, because the other end of the spectrum from the very high estimates is the old “I’ll have it to you tomorrow” adage, that then turns into a week-long exercise, with all good reasons for the delay, but slipping a day at a time for a week makes it very difficult to create a realistic plan.
Depending on the team member estimates can be low or high
The job then when wearing the project management hat is to work with the team to strike a balance between too much time and too little time for each task. And the answer is relative not absolute.
Ask for a low and high
I have found what works well is before the meeting, members who are responsible for task, research and identify both a low estimate with an accompanying set of reasons, and a high estimate, also with reasons for the number.
Somehow the range provides a comfort level for them to provide a number that represents what it would take if they had all the time they would like and also a number that they could hold themselves to if they didn’t have much time at all.
A table they could use might look like the following:
Ask for a range of low and high estimate per task
The low and high seems to be an easier option for our minds because it gives us the opportunity to specify what we feel is a realistic range, rather than feeling the pressure of having to pick one specific number.
You can then add the two numbers, divide by two and arrive at an average that is probably close to what is realistic. However, a conversation is needed.
Use the Numbers as a Conversation Starting Point
Explore the reasoning behind the low and high and their descriptions around those, because that helps uncover the value gained from more or less time spent on a task.
That conversation with the team member also gives them a comfort level that you appreciate what is required for the task and the range of options for completing it. This also allows you to have better communications with them if there are challenges completing the task.
The final step is to apply the calendar
Discussing the tasks and effort doesn’t have to be a long conversation, but it is necessary because the final step is to add that task detail to the project schedule.
Here you ask them to put in their words the task that they plan on completing.
Incidentally you are aiming for tasks that are several days to a week or two in duration. Don’t make them too much longer and a week is ideal because it is an easier frame within which to create urgency around getting tasks done between status meetings. Several days effort per task is probably ideal.
Now layer that task into the schedule. Here there are constraints of dependencies on other related tasks, or other outside influences such as waiting for external items to be delivered or provided by other teams. There could even be holidays or vacations in the mix.
Layer the effort into the schedule and choose a realistic end date which now creates the duration.
The team member should leave the meeting knowing what they have to get accomplished in the week, how much effort is expected on each task, a time boundary in their mind that provides a governor for how much they spend on it, and a duration in terms of when they are expected to have it complete.
Summary
Estimating is critical to understanding the effort required per task to build a realistic approach.
This approach is then used to apply the schedule to determine actual due dates and establish commitments with the team members.
Get a low and high estimate for each of their major tasks and use that as a starting point to determine what time is appropriate given what the project requires out of the task. This is best accomplished as a conversation during the weekly project team meetings.
Once you have a realistic number for effort then impose the calendar to obtain the duration and dates due for the tasks. During the meeting a few iterations may be required to meet particular milestones.
Action Steps / Apply This Knowledge
- Create a low and high estimating sheet to provide to your project team or speak to them verbally about what it needs to look like and use it for the next meeting or next time you are reviewing and updating estimates.
- Once you agree with the team member(s) about the estimates, define the tasks or set of tasks that were just estimated using their descriptions and make sure in the scheduling tool you are using they can clearly see the effort and distinguish it from the duration.
- Tasks need constant review and updating as the project proceeds. Tasks that are further out and for which less is known, will have very high-level estimates and these need re-calibration when the time period for their execution is close, such as within a few weeks. Then use the low and high estimating technique described in this blog post.
- Prompt engineering guidance for AI GPTs such as chatGPT: “I’m a business leader launching a project that is creating the following deliverables: X, Y, Z. What are some approaches I can use to do the estimating for the effort and duration for these deliverables and tasks associated with their creation?”
Learn More to Do More
Business evolves through change initiatives otherwise known as projects. The key to managing these change initiatives so you have more time, and less stress is to use simple strategies and tools.
Check out the Learning Hub’s other Articles with Actionable Steps, organized with a busy leader in mind, by topic or main idea, and with some AI GPT (e.g. ChatGPT) prompt engineering suggestions under the Action steps: https://simplepmstrategies.com/learning-hub-index
PLAN – Approach Estimating Low High
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